Author information:
Gabriella Grosz: Magyar Nemzeti Bank, Senior Economic Analyst. E-mail: groszg@mnb.hu
Gábor Izsák: Magyar Nemzeti Bank, Legal Advisor. E-mail: izsakg@mnb.hu
Alexandr Maxim Palicz: Magyar Nemzeti Bank, Senior Economic Analyst. E-mail: palicza@mnb.hu
Katinka Szász: Magyar Nemzeti Bank, Legal Advisor. E-mail: szaszk@mnb.hu
Abstract:
As a result of the dynamic rise in real estate prices in recent years, house prices, and therefore the minimum down payment required to obtain a mortgage, more than tripled by 2022 compared to 2014. This led to a deterioration of access to borrowing opportunities typically for young first-time home buyers aged 35 or younger, especially among clients who are not eligible for family support schemes. In this paper, we provide a detailed overview of the potential side effects of the borrower-based measure framework on first-time home buyers. Relative to their credit risk, these clients may be more severely affected by borrower-based measures, generating negative second-round effects. Therefore, in their case preferential limits may be applied, in line with international practice, notably on the level of down payment. However, when making such a decision, it is important to take into account the development of risks in the housing and credit markets and the macroeconomic environment.
Cite as (APA):
Grosz, G., Izsák, G., Palicz, A. M., & Szász, K. (2023). Improving Access to Credit for First-Time Home Buyers under Borrower-Based Measures. Financial and Economic Review, 22(2), 25–53. https://doi.org/10.33893/FER.22.2.25
Column:
Study
Journal of Economic Literature (JEL) codes:
D14, E32, E51, E58, G21, R31
Keywords:
financial stability, real estate overheatedness, excessive lending, macroprudential policy, borrower-based measures, loan-to-value ratio, debt-service-to-income ratio, first-time home buyer
References:
Akinci, O. – Olmstead-Rumsey, J. (2015): How Effective are Macroprudential Policies? An Empirical Investigation. International Finance Discussion Paper 1136. https://doi.org/10.17016/IFDP.2015.1136
Alfonzetti, M. (2022): Are First Home Buyer Loans More Risky? Reserve Bank of Australia Bulletin, March. https://www.rba.gov.au/publications/bulletin/2022/mar/pdf/are-first-home-buyer-loans-more-risky.pdf
Andrews, D. – Sánchez, A.C. – Johansson, Å. (2011): Housing markets and structural policies in OECD countries. OECD Economics Department Working Papers No 836. https://doi.org/10.1787/5kgk8t2k9vf3-en
Bekkum, S. – Gabarro, M. – Irani, R. – Peydro, J. (2019): Take It to the Limit? The Effects of Household Leverage Caps. Working Papers 1132, Barcelona Graduate School of Economics. https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3284670
Buch, C.M. – Goldberg, L. (2016): Cross-border prudential policy spillovers: How much? How important? Evidence from the international banking research network. Working Paper 22874, National Bureau of Economic Research. https://www.doi.org/10.3386/w22874
Carpantier, J. F. – Olivera, J. – Van Kerm, P. (2018): Macroprudential policy and household wealth inequality. Journal of International Money and Finance, 85(July): 262–277. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jimonfin.2017.11.009
Causa, O. – Pichelmann, J. (2020): Should I stay or should I go? Housing and residential mobility across OECD countries. OECD Economics Department Working Papers, No. 1626, OECD Publishing, Paris. https://doi.org/10.1787/d91329c2-en
Causa, O. – Woloszko, N. (2020): Policy Considerations on Housing, Wealth, and Inequality. Cityscape, 22(3): 339–364. https://www.huduser.gov/portal/periodicals/cityscpe/vol22num3/ch17.pdf
Cerutti, E. – Claessens, S. – Laeven, L. (2015): The Use and Effectiveness of Macroprudential Policies: New Evidence. IMF Working Papers, 2015(061). https://doi.org/10.5089/9781498321051.001
Claessens, S. – Ghosh, S.R. – Mihet, R. (2014): Macro-Prudential Policies to Mitigate Financial System Vulnerabilities. IMF Working Papers, 2014(155). https://doi.org/10.5089/9781498319546.001
Cournède, B. – Plouin, M. (2022): No Home for the Young? Stylised Facts and Policy Issues. OECD Housing. https://www.oecd.org/housing/no-home-for-the-young.pdf. Downloaded: 10 February 2022.
Dettling, L.J. – Kearney, M.S. (2014): House prices and birth rates: The impact of the real estate market on the decision to have a baby. Journal of Public Economics, 110(February): 82–110. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jpubeco.2013.09.009
ESRB (2020): A Review of Macroprudential Policy in the EU in 2019. European Systemic Risk Board, April. https://www.esrb.europa.eu/pub/pdf/reports/review_macroprudential_policy/esrb.report200429_reviewofmacroprudentialpolicy_sf~ac314fead6.en.pdf. Downloaded: 23 February 2022.
Fáykiss, P. – Palicz, A. – Szakács, J. – Zsigó, M. (2018): Experiences of Debt Cap Regulations in Hungarian Retail Lending. Financial and Economics Review, 17(1): 34–61. http://doi.org/10.25201/FER.17.1.3461
Frost, J. – van Stralen, R. (2018): Macroprudential policy and income inequality. DNB Working Paper No. 598, May. https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3191868
Gabriel, S. – Painter, G. (2020): Why affordability matters. Regional Science and Urban Economics, 80, 103378. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.regsciurbeco.2018.07.001
Georgescu, O.M. – MartĂn, D.V. (2021): Do Macroprudential Measures Increase Inequality? Evidence from the Euro Area Household Survey. ECB Working Paper No. 2021/2567, June. https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3870018
Giuliana, R. (2019): Have First-Time Buyers continued to default less? Central Bank of Ireland, Financial Stability Notes, Vol. 2019, No. 14. https://www.centralbank.ie/docs/default-source/publications/financial-stability-notes/no.-14-have-first-time-buyers-continued-to-default-less.pdf?sfvrsn=7
Gyourko, J. – Lee, D. – Tracy, J. (2015): First-Time Homebuyers: The Role of Thin Credit Files. Working paper, Wharton. https://www.frbsf.org/economic-research/wp-content/uploads/sites/4/S01_P1_JoeTracy.pdf. Downloaded: 20 January 2023.
Guvenen, F. – Karahan, F. – Ozkan, S. – Song, J. (2021): What do data on millions of US workers reveal about lifecycle earnings dynamics? Econometrica, 89(5): 2303–2339. https://doi.org/10.3982/ECTA14603
Hosszú, Zs. – Borsos, A. – Mérő, B. – Vágó, N. (forthcoming): Comprehensive evaluation of borrower-based macroprudential policies with a high-resolution agent-based model. Working Paper, Magyar Nemzeti Bank.
IMF-FSB-BIS (2016): Elements of Effective Macroprudential Policies – Lessons from International Experience. 31 August. https://www.bookstore.imf.org/images/IMF_FSB_BIS_2016.pdf. Downloaded: 5 November 2022.
Jarmulska, B. – Bandoni, E. – Lang, J.H. – Duca, M.L. – Perales, C. – Rusnák, M. (2022): The analytical toolkit for the assessment of residential real estate vulnerabilities. European Central Bank, Macroprudential Bulletin, No. 19, 10 October. https://www.ecb.europa.eu/pub/financial-stability/macroprudential-bulletin/html/ecb.mpbu202210_2~7f1ad6fa2d.en.html
Kelly, R. – O’Malley, T. – O’Toole, C. (2014): Do First Time Buyers Default Less? Implications for macro-prudential policy. Economic Letters, Central Bank of Ireland, Vol. 2014, No 14. https://www.centralbank.ie/docs/default-source/publications/economic-letters/economic-letter---vol-2014-no-14.pdf?sfvrsn=8
Kelly, R. – O’Malley, T. (2016): The good, the bad and the impaired: A credit risk model of the Irish mortgage market. Journal of Financial Stability, 22, 1–9. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jfs.2015.09.005
Martin, P. – Philippon, T. (2017): Inspecting the Mechanism: Leverage and the Great Recession in the Eurozone. American Economic Review, 107(7): 1904–1937. https://doi.org/10.1257/aer.20150630
McDonald, C. (2015): When is macroprudential policy effective? BIS Working Papers No 496, March. https://www.bis.org/publ/work496.pdf
MNB (2022a): Housing Market Report – November 2022. Magyar Nemzeti Bank. https://www.mnb.hu/letoltes/laka-spiaci-jelente-s-2022-november-eng.pdf
MNB (2022b): Macroprudential report – 2022. Magyar Nemzeti Bank. https://www.mnb.hu/letoltes/makroprudencialis-jelentes-2022-eng.pdf
Mulder, C.H. – Billari, F.C. (2010): Homeownership Regimes and Low Fertility. Housing Studies, 25(4): 527–541. https://doi.org/10.1080/02673031003711469
Lazarov, V.S. – Hinterschweiger, M. (2018): Determinants of distress in the UK owner-occupier and buy-to-let mortgage markets. Bank of England Working Papers, No. 760. https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3272837
Lentner, Cs. – Novoszáth, P. – Sága, J. (2017): A magyar családpolitika és a születésszám alakulásának egyes kiemelt területei demográfiai, szociológiai és állampénzügyi vetületben, nemzetközi kitekintéssel (Special aspects of the formation of the Hungarian family policy and the birth rates in demographic, sociological and public finance context, with international perspectives). Magyar Közigazgatás, 2017(4): 106–133. https://folyoirat.ludovika.hu/index.php/ppbmk/article/view/2885/2140
Patrabansh, S. (2015): The Marginal Effect of First-Time Homebuyer Status on Mortgage Default and Prepayment. FHFA Working Paper 15-2. https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2628835