Author information:
Tamás Ginter https://orcid.org/0009-0008-7237-389X: Magyar Nemzeti Bank, International Advisor; Andrássy University Budapest, PhD Student. E-mail: gintert@mnb.hu
Patrik Tischler https://orcid.org/0009-0003-2392-103X: Magyar Nemzeti Bank, International Advisor. E-mail: tischlerp@mnb.hu
Abstract:
After a number of shocks (including the Covid-19 pandemic and the war in Ukraine, in particular), global trade has undergone a transformation that is characterised by deglobalisation and decoupling tendencies. In this paper, we use descriptive statistics to analyse the short-term effects of exogenous shocks on international trade in the Visegrád countries. We find that between 2019 and 2022, deglobalisation tendencies were not persistent in the region. The trade-to-GDP ratio has exceeded the pre-pandemic levels (thus, the region is more globalised than in 2019), despite short-term declines induced by the various shocks. While the region trades mainly with politically-economically aligned partners, the proportion of international trade with non-Western partners has also grown over the past four years. Trade with Russia has declined significantly since the outbreak of the war in Ukraine, but decoupling from China has not started. However, certain country differences apply.
Cite as (APA):
Ginter, T., & Tischler, P. (2024). Deglobalisation and Decoupling Tendencies in the Visegrád Countries in the Wake of the Polycrisis. Financial and Economic Review, 23(2), 56–82. https://doi.org/10.33893/FER.23.2.56
Column:
Study
Journal of Economic Literature (JEL) codes:
F02, F50, F62
Keywords:
deglobalisation, decoupling, Central and Eastern Europe, Visegrád countries
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