The Effect of Seasonal Depression on Stock Market Returns

30 September 2024DOI: https://doi.org/10.33893/FER.23.3.117

Author information:

Virág Kégl https://orcid.org/0009-0003-8982-2800: Budapest University of Economics and Technology, Student; Rajk College for Advanced Studies, Senior Member. E-mail:

Dóra Gréta Petróczy https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8182-3791: Budapest Metropolitan University, Assistant Professor; Magyar Nemzeti Bank, Education and Research Expert. E-mail:

Abstract:

The study analyses the statistical relationship between the degree of seasonal depression and stock index returns. For this analysis, we examine the daily returns of two US and five European stock indices using OLS regression. The analysis found a statistically significant relationship between seasonal depression and the change in returns. However, due to the limited use of the reduced form, this only confirms the link between seasonal depression and returns, and further observations would be required to confirm a causal relationship.

Cite as (APA):

Kégl, V., & Petróczy, D. G. (2024). The Effect of Seasonal Depression on Stock Market Returns. Financial and Economic Review, 23(3), 117–139. https://doi.org/10.33893/FER.23.3.117

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Column:

Study

Journal of Economic Literature (JEL) codes:

C10, G14, G20, G40

Keywords:

investor sentiment, seasonal depression, stock indices, stock market returns

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