The Evolution of Trust in Central Banks during the Covid Crisis

31 March 2025DOI: https://doi.org/10.33893/FER.24.1.29

Author information:

Zoltán Korsós https://orcid.org/0009-0003-9143-8525: Budapest Metropolitan University, Master’s Student. E-mail:

Eszter Baranyai: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9444-2584: Magyar Nemzeti Bank, Senior Education and Research Expert; Budapest Metropolitan University, Visiting Lecturer. E-mail:

Abstract:

This paper examines the evolution of trust in central banks during the Covid-19 pandemic in euro area countries, using the example of the European Central Bank. The study focuses on the effects of the pandemic, but also analyses the role of demographic, economic and political factors. We use a probit model with data from Eurobarometer and the Oxford COVID-19 Government Response Tracker. Our results show that the pandemic led to a decline in institutional trust, though this effect is not specific to central banks. There is a positive relationship between stricter government measures and trust in central banks. Extreme political views – both left-wing and right-wing views – are associated with lower trust in central banks. Our results highlight the co-movements of trust in particular institutions, and draw attention to the need for a deeper understanding of the trust dynamics within extremist groups.

Cite as (APA):

Korsós, Z., & Baranyai, E. (2025). The Evolution of Trust in Central Banks during the Covid Crisis. Financial and Economic Review, 24(1), 29–51. https://doi.org/10.33893/FER.24.1.29

PDF download
The works on this site are licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License.

Column:

Study

Journal of Economic Literature (JEL) codes:

E58, F33, Z13

Keywords:

central bank, trust, Eurobarometer survey, Covid, crisis, European Central Bank

References:

Banducci, S.A. – Karp, J.A. – Loedel, P.H. (2009): Economic Interests and Public Support for the Euro. Journal of European Public Policy, 16(4): 564–581. https://doi.org/10.1080/13501760902872643

Baranyai, E. – Kolozsi, P.P. – Neszveda, G. – Banai, Á. – Lehmann, K. (2024): The impact of the green direction in central banking on the general public’s trust: evidence from Hungary. International Review of Financial Analysis, 97, 103803. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.irfa.2024.103803

Boda, Z. (2019): A méltányosság és az intézményi bizalom szerepe a gazdaságban (The role of equity and institutional trust in the economy). Magyar Tudomány, 180(4): 510–520. http://dx.doi.org/10.1556/2065.180.2019.4.5

Borkó, T. – Herbert, E. – Székely, B. – Szomorjai, P. (2020): How Would the MNB’s Liquidity and Funding Requirements Have Influenced the Impact of the 2008 Crisis in Hungary? Financial and Economic Review, 19(4): 27–59. https://doi.org/10.33893/FER.19.4.2759

Brouwer, N. – de Haan, J. (2022): Trust in the ECB: Drivers and consequences. European Journal of Political Economy, 74, 102262. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2022.102262

Bursian, D. – Fürth, S. (2015): Trust me! I am a European central banker. Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 47(8): 1503–1530. https://doi.org/10.1111/jmcb.12282

Győrffy, D. (2012): Intézményi bizalom és a döntések időhorizontja (Institutional confidence and the time line of decision-making). Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review), 59(4): 412–425.

Ehrmann, M. – Fratzscher, M. (2011): Politics and monetary policy. Review of Economics and Statistics, 93(3): 941–960. https://doi.org/10.1162/REST_a_00113

Ehrmann, M. – Soudan, M. – Stracca, L. (2013): Explaining European Union citizens’ trust in the European Central Bank in normal and crisis times. The Scandinavian Journal of Economics, 115(3): 781–807. https://doi.org/10.1111/sjoe.12020

Farrell, L. – Fry, J.M. – Fry, T.R. (2021): Who trusts the bank of England and high street banks in Britain? Applied Economics, 53(16): 1886–1898. https://doi.org/10.1080/00036846.2020.1854448

Farvaque, E. – Hayat, M.A. – Mihailov, A. (2017): Who supports the ECB? Evidence from Eurobarometer survey data. The World Economy, 40(4): 654–677. https://doi.org/10.1111/twec.12472

Fischer, J.A. – Hahn, V. (2008): Determinants of trust in the European Central Bank. SSE/EFI Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance No. 695.

Gros, D. – Roth, F. (2010): The financial crisis and citizen trust in the European Central Bank. CEPs Working Document No. 334. https://cdn.ceps.eu/wp-content/uploads/2010/07/WD334 Gros & Roth on Citizens' trust in the ECB e-version.pdf

Hale, T. – Angrist, N. – Kira, B. – Petherick, A. – Phillips, T. – Webster, S. (2020): Variation in government responses to COVID-19. Blavatnik Centre for Government Working Paper, University of Oxford (2020).

Hayo, B.– Neuenkirch, E. (2014): The German public and its trust in the ECB: The role of knowledge and information search. Journal of International Money and Finance, 47: 286–303. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jimonfin.2014.07.003

Hayo, B. – Neumeier, F. (2021): Explaining central bank trust in an inflation-targeting country: the case of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand. Oxford Economic Papers, 73(1): 27–48. https://doi.org/10.1093/oep/gpz078

Hudson, J. (2006): Institutional trust and subjective well‐being across the EU. Kyklos, 59(1): 43–62. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-6435.2006.00319.x

Kaltenthaler, K.C. – Anderson, C.J. (2001): Europeans and their money: Explaining public support for the common European currency. European Journal of Political Research, 40(2): 139–170. https://doi.org/10.1111/1475-6765.00593

Kaltenthaler, K. – Anderson, C.J. – Miller, W.J. (2010): Accountability and independent central banks: Europeans and distrust of the European Central Bank. JCMS: Journal of Common Market Studies, 48(5): 1261–1281. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-5965.2010.02112.x

Kiss, N. (2018): The Role and Impact of Trust on the Operation and Sustainability of the State. Public Finance Quarterly, 63(3): 289–302.

Knack, S. (2001): Trust, associational life, and economic performance. In: Helliwell, J.F. – Bonikowska, A. (eds.): The contribution of human and social capital to sustained economic growth and well-being. Human Resources Development Canada, pp. 172–202.

Medve-Bálint, G. – Boda, Z. (2014): Ki szegényebb, jobban bízik? Az anyagi helyzet, a gazdasági fejlettség és a jövedelmi egyenlőtlenségek hatása az intézményi bizalomra Kelet-Közép-Európában (Are those who are poorer more trusting? The impact of wealth, level of economic development and income disparities on institutional trust in Central and Eastern Europe). Társadalomtudományi Szemle, 2014(4): 56–86. http://dx.doi.org/10.18030/SOCIO.HU.2014.4.56

Mellina, S. – Schmidt, T. (2018): The role of central bank knowledge and trust for the public's inflation expectations. Deutsche Bundesbank Discussion Paper No 32/2018. https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3249943

Mishler, W. – Rose, R. (2001): What are the origins of political trust? Testing institutional and cultural theories in post-communist societies. Comparative Political Studies, 34(1): 30–62. https://doi.org/10.1177/0010414001034001002

Van der Cruijsen, C. – Jansen, D.J. – De Haan, J. (2010): How much does the public know about the ECB's monetary policy? Evidence from a survey of Dutch households. ECB Working Paper No. 1265. https://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1701609

Waller, C.J. (1991): Bashing and coercion in monetary policy. Economic Inquiry, 29(1): 1–13. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1465-7295.1991.tb01248.x

Wälti, S. (2012): Trust no more? The impact of the crisis on citizens’ trust in central banks. Journal of International Money and Finance, 31(3): 593–605. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jimonfin.2011.11.012