作者信息：
马克西姆·丘皮尔金（Maxim Chupilkin） https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8188-6880: 牛津大学，博士研究生；欧洲复兴开发银行（EBRD），助理经济学家. E-mail: chupilkm@ebrd.com
科恰恩·佐卡（Zsóka Kóczán） https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6653-6877: 欧洲复兴开发银行（EBRD），副总监兼主任经济学家. E-mail: KoczanZ@ebrd.com
亚历山大·普列汉诺夫（Alexander Plekhanov） https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9282-9283: 欧洲复兴开发银行（EBRD），总监. E-mail: plekhana@ebrd.com
摘要：
2024年标志着十个经济体加入欧盟二十周年。这些经济体的经验以人均收入的快速增长为特征。在2003年至2023年期间，EU-10与德国之间观察到的平均趋同幅度为23个百分点，其中6个百分点与具有相似特征的其他新兴市场共有，而其余17个百分点可被视为“欧盟入盟红利”。这一红利得以实现，主要是因为这些国家在深度融入供应链的过程中，出口相对于GDP实现了快速增长。考察更早一轮欧盟扩大的影响，在入盟二十年后，我们同样估计西班牙和葡萄牙（1986年加入欧盟）获得了显著的“欧盟入盟红利”。奥地利、芬兰和瑞典（1995年加入欧盟）只有在更长期内、且在对照组排除冰岛、列支敦士登、挪威和瑞士这些虽非欧盟成员但可进入欧盟单一市场的经济体的情况下，才表现出优于其合成对照的结果。
引用格式 （APA）：
Chupilkin, M., Kóczán, Z., & Plekhanov, A. (2026). 20 years of EU Membership: What Explains the Accession Bonus?. Financial and Economic Review, 25(Chinese Issue of Selected Studies), 62–82. https://hitelintezetiszemle.mnb.hu/cn/hsz-2026-cn-s4-chupilkin-koczan-plekhanov
刊：
研究论文
《经济文献杂志》（JEL）编码：
F15，F43，F63，O47
关键词：
欧盟；入盟红利；收入趋同；贸易一体化
参考文献：
Abadie, A. (2021): Using Synthetic Controls: Feasibility, Data Requirements, and Methodological Aspects.（《合成控制法的应用：可行性、数据要求与方法论问题》）Journal of Economic Literature 59(2): 391–425. https://doi.org/10.1257/jel.20191450
Abadie, A. – Diamond, A. – Hainmueller, J. (2010): Synthetic control methods for comparative case studies: Estimating the effect of California’s Tobacco Control Program.（《用于比较案例研究的合成控制方法：对加利福尼亚州烟草控制计划效果的估计》）Journal of the American Statistical Association, 105(490): 493–505. https://doi.org/10.1198/jasa.2009.ap08746
Abadie, A. – Diamond, A. – Hainmueller, J. (2011): Synth: An R Package for Synthetic Control Methods in Comparative Case Studies.（《Synth：用于比较案例研究的合成控制方法的 R 包》）Journal of Statistical Software, 42(13): 1–17. https://doi.org/10.18637/jss.v042.i13
Abadie, A. – Gardeazabal, J. (2003): The economic costs of conflict: A case study of the Basque Country.（《冲突的经济成本：巴斯克地区的案例研究》）American Economic Review, 93(1): 113–132. https://doi.org/10.1257/000282803321455188
Abadie, A. – Vives-i-Bastida, J. (2022): Synthetic Controls in Action.（《合成控制法的实际应用》）ArXiv Preprint ArXiv: 2203.06279. https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2203.06279
Bache, I. – George, S. – Bulmer, S. (2011): Politics in the European Union.（《欧盟政治》）Oxford University Press.
Badinger, H. (2005): Growth effects of economic integration: Evidence from the EU member states.（《经济一体化的增长效应：来自欧盟成员国的证据》）Review of World Economics, 141(1): 50–78. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10290-005-0015-y
Baldwin, R.E. – Seghezza, E. (1996): Growth and European Integration: Towards an Empirical Assessment.（《增长与欧洲一体化：迈向实证评估》）CEPR Discussion Paper No. 1393. https://cepr.org/publications/dp1393
Ben-David, D. (1993): Equalizing exchange: Trade liberalization and income convergence.（《均等化交换：贸易自由化与收入趋同》）Quarterly Journal of Economics, 108(3): 653–679. https://doi.org/10.2307/2118404
Ben-David, D. (1996): Trade and convergence among countries.（《国家间的贸易与趋同》）Journal of International Economics, 40(3–4): 279–298. https://doi.org/10.1016/0022-1996(95)01405-5
Boltho, A. – Eichengreen, B. (2008): The Economic Impact of European Integration.（《欧洲一体化的经济影响》）CEPR Discussion Paper No. 6820. https://cepr.org/publications/dp6820
Bruszt, L. – Campos, N. (2017): State Capacity and Economic Integration: Evidence from the Eastern Enlargement.（《国家能力与经济一体化：来自东欧扩大的实证研究》）EUI RSCAS Working Paper No. 2017/52. https://hdl.handle.net/1814/48387
Campos, N. – Coricelli, F. (2002): Growth in transition: What we know, what we don’t, and what we should.（《转型中的增长：我们已知的、未知的以及应当了解的》）Journal of Economic Literature, 40(3): 793–836. https://doi.org/10.1257/002205102760273797
Campos, N. – Coricelli, F. – Franceschi, E. (2022): Institutional Integration and Productivity Growth in Europe: Synthetic Differences-in-Differences Evidence from the 1995 Enlargement of the European Union.（《制度一体化与欧洲生产率增长：基于欧盟1995年扩员的合成双重差分证据》）European Economic Review, 142, 104014. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.euroecorev.2021.104014
Campos, N.F. – Coricelli, F. – Moretti, L. (2019): Institutional Integration and Economic Growth in Europe.（《欧洲的制度一体化与经济增长》）Journal of Monetary Economics, 103(1): 88–104. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmoneco.2018.08.001
Crespo Cuaresma, J. – Ritzberger-Grünwald, D. – Silgoner, M.A. (2008): Growth, convergence and EU membership.（《增长、趋同与欧盟成员资格》）Applied Economics, 40(5): 643–656. https://doi.org/10.1080/00036840600749524
de Souza, L.V. – Diaz, D. (2024): Growth and Convergence in Portugal: Historical and Policy Experiences at National and Metropolitan Level.（《葡萄牙的增长与趋同：国家与大都市层面的历史与政策经验》）Notas Económicas, No. 58(2024): 37–63. https://doi.org/10.14195/2183-203X_58_2
EBRD (2012): Integration across borders.（《跨境融合》）Transition Report 2012. https://www.ebrd.com/content/dam/ebrd_dxp/assets/pdfs/office-of-the-chief-economist/transition-report-archive/transition-report-2012/Transition-Report-2012-Integration-Across-Borders-English.pdf
EBRD (2019): Eight things you should know about middle-income transitions.（《关于中等收入转型你应该知道的八件事》）EBRD, London. https://www.ebrd.com/content/dam/ebrd_dxp/assets/pdfs/office-of-the-chief-economist/special-reports/middle-income-transition/eight-things-you-should-know-about-middle-income-transitions/EBRD-Middle-Income-Transitions.pdf
EBRD (2024): Taming inflation.（《治理通货膨胀》）Regional Economic Prospects, May 2024. https://www.ebrd.com/rep-may-2024.pdf
Grassi, B. (2024): The EU miracle: When 75 million reach high income.（《欧盟奇迹：当7500万人迈入高收入行列》）CEPR Discussion Paper 19114. https://cepr.org/publications/dp19114
Henrekson, M. – Torstensson, J. – Torstensson, R. (1997): Growth effects of European integration.（《欧洲一体化的增长效应》）European Economic Review, 41(8): 1537–1557. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0014-2921(97)00063-9
IMF (2024): A recovery short of Europe’s full potential.（《未能完全发挥欧洲潜力的复苏》）In: Regional Economic Outlook, Europe, October 2024. https://doi.org/10.5089/9798400287312.086
King, G. – Zeng, L. (2006): The Dangers of Extreme Counterfactuals.（《极端反事实的风险》）Political Analysis, 14(2): 131–159. https://doi.org/10.1093/pan/mpj004
Rubin, D.B. (1974): Estimating causal effects of treatments in randomized and nonrandomized studies.（《在随机和非随机研究中估计干预措施的因果效应》）Journal of Educational Psychology, 66(5): 688–701. https://doi.org/10.1037/h0037350
Slaughter, M. (2001): Trade liberalization and per capita income convergence: a difference-in-differences analysis.（《贸易自由化与人均收入趋同：基于双重差分方法的分析》）Journal of International Economics, 55(1): 203–228. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0022-1996(00)00087-8
Szapáry, G. – Vonnák, B. (2024): The Impact of Monetary Policy Institutional Decisions on Convergence in Central and Eastern European Countries.（《货币政策制度性决策对中东欧国家趋同的影响》）Financial and Economic Review, 23(4): 120–152. https://doi.org/10.33893/FER.23.4.120